AGP Executive Report

Desertification Debate: A new UN-backed warning says the Sahara has expanded by about a million square kilometres over the last century, pushing drylands further south and raising alarms about how “permanently drier” land is becoming the new normal. Methane for Energy and Climate: G7 officials say cutting methane from oil and gas could slow warming fast and also free up gas supplies to ease today’s energy squeeze. Migration and Sea Safety: Greece reports sea arrivals of undocumented migrants down more than 40% in early 2026, with the biggest drop on the Eastern Aegean route; on the Libya-to-Crete route, declines are smaller, and cooperation with the Libyan coast guard is expanding. Fezzan Priorities: UN deputy envoy Ulrika Richardson begins a two-day southern Libya visit, focusing on climate risks, water access, healthcare, and action against smuggling and trafficking networks. Libya’s Gas Flaring Royalties: Libya’s government is considering royalty recovery for natural gas flared by producers, reigniting the fight over whether flaring is “avoidable” and should be paid for. Local Economy Moves: Libya’s economy ministry approves 13 decisions to expand foreign and joint-company operations, aiming to improve the investment climate and trade stability. UN Reconciliation Process: UNSMIL reports progress on reconciliation and human-rights track meetings, including attention to discrimination against cultural and linguistic groups and enforced disappearances.

Desertification & Land: A new UN-linked warning says the Sahara is expanding fast, with more than three-quarters of land now “permanently drier” since the Desertification Convention began—raising alarms for the Sahel and North Africa. AI & Climate Tech Inclusion: An Arab women’s leader warns AI could lock in bias if women’s voices aren’t included, pushing for women-led roles in climate tech and policy. Fezzan Water & Climate Risks: UN Deputy Envoy Ulrika Richardson toured southern Libya, meeting mayors and officials in Sebha and other municipalities to flag climate risks, water access, and healthcare gaps, alongside action against smuggling and trafficking. UN Reconciliation & Human Rights: UNSMIL says structured dialogue meetings ended with recommendations on economic reform and reconciliation, while Amazigh, Tuareg, and Tebu communities declared they’ve lost confidence in the UN process. Energy Transition & Oil Reality: A study argues state oil firms could drive a fair transition, but many lack credible plans; meanwhile Libya’s oil “windfall” won’t fix the economy without ending parallel spending and strengthening oversight. Flaring & Wasted Gas: Libya’s policy debate echoes wider regional pressure to cut gas flaring and recover royalties where possible. Mediterranean Storms: Researchers warn “medicanes” may become more frequent as Mediterranean seas warm, increasing heavy-rain and wind risks for southern Europe.

Desertification in focus: A new report warns the Sahara is expanding fast, with UN data saying more than three-quarters of land has become permanently drier since 1996—raising alarms for Libya’s wider drylands and Sahel-linked climate pressures. Fezzan climate and water needs: UN deputy envoy Ulrika Richardson begins a two-day southern Libya mission, meeting local authorities in Sabha and other municipalities to push for better service delivery, with climate risks and water shortages high on the agenda. Gas flaring royalties debate: Libya’s region-wide energy waste echoes an India-linked move to recover royalties on natural gas flared by producers—highlighting how “avoidable” flaring rules can drive policy and accountability. Oil revenue won’t automatically help: Libya’s oil output is rising, but coverage stresses that higher revenues won’t fix the economy without ending parallel spending and strengthening oversight. UN reconciliation and human rights track: UNSMIL reports progress from structured dialogue meetings, including attention to enforced disappearances, missing persons, and human rights in the south—key for sustainable peace. Mediterranean storm risk: Researchers warn “medicanes” could become more common as sea temperatures rise, a reminder that Libya’s region may face harsher extreme-weather impacts. Libya’s health system under migration pressure: Libya calls for stronger international support for primary healthcare as non-communicable diseases and migration strain services.

UN Southern Push: UN deputy envoy Ulrika Richardson has started a two-day mission to Libya’s south, meeting Sabha’s leadership and southern mayors to focus on service delivery gaps, climate and water stress, and healthcare—while also pressing for action against smuggling, trafficking, and cross-border criminal networks. Local Governance & Humanitarian Needs: The delegation toured a Red Crescent warehouse supporting Sudanese refugees and visited a UNESCO-backed library, underscoring how municipal capacity and basic supplies are shaping stability on the ground. Economy Under Strain: Despite Libya’s oil output hitting a ten-year high, rising household costs and dinar pressure are still biting—an “oil windfall” won’t fix the economy without tighter governance and an end to parallel spending. Business Climate Moves: In Tripoli, the Economy Ministry approved 13 decisions to expand foreign and joint ventures, aiming to simplify procedures and boost investor confidence. Structured Dialogue: UNSMIL also wrapped the economic track of reconciliation talks, preparing recommendations on oil revenue management, public finance, and regional economic balance for next June.

Libya’s Trade Push: Tripoli’s Economy and Trade Minister Suhail Abu Shiha says the ministry is moving to a more disciplined, transparent business climate—using market regulation, price correction, and its National Price Observatory to curb corruption and protect both consumers and traders. He also stressed quality standards to support local production and add value. Foreign Investment Steps: In parallel, the ministry approved 13 decisions to expand foreign and joint ventures, including new branches and extended commercial agency activities, aiming to simplify procedures and boost confidence. Libya-Turkey Momentum: Libya also met Turkey to resolve the status of Turkish companies and prepare for the next joint committee meeting, with both sides looking to widen trade and investment. UN Reconciliation & Economy: UNSMIL wrapped up structured dialogue sessions, urging local initiatives for reconciliation and finalizing economic reform recommendations. Regional Watch: Climate researchers warn “medicanes” could become more frequent in a warming Mediterranean.

Libya–Turkey Economic Push: Libya’s Economy Minister Soheil Boucheiha met Turkey’s ambassador to speed up resolving the status of Turkish firms in Libya and set up the next Joint Committee meeting, aiming to restore projects and expand trade and investment. Foreign Investment Approvals: The Government of National Unity approved 13 decisions to expand foreign and joint-company operations, including new branches and extended commercial agency activities, as it tries to simplify procedures and improve the investment climate. UN Reconciliation Talks: UNSMIL says the “structured dialogue” wrapped up its Economic Track with draft recommendations on economic governance, oil revenue management, sovereign wealth funds, diversification, and regional economic justice—while the reconciliation and human-rights track stressed building on local initiatives. Climate Watch: Researchers warn Mediterranean “medicanes” could become more frequent as sea temperatures rise, raising the risk of hurricane-like storms for southern Europe. Regional Context: Libya also faces mounting pressure on health systems from migration, with officials urging more international support.

Maritime Security Shock: Russia says it has recovered the “black box” of the Arctic Metagaz LNG tanker after a Mediterranean drone attack, with investigators reporting explosive damage, destroyed control systems, and no fuel leaks—while specialists traveled to Libya to analyze the recorder. Cyber Control: Iran’s officials claim they’ve imported advanced Chinese tech to permanently throttle internet access, as a nationwide blackout enters its third month. Libya’s Investment Push: Libya’s Economy Ministry approved 13 decisions covering foreign and joint ventures, including new branches for companies from Turkey, China, Cyprus, Germany and others—aimed at improving the investment climate. Energy Diplomacy: Libya and Turkey renewed talks to expand oil, gas and energy cooperation, with focus on production, gas projects and infrastructure like the Greenstream pipeline. Health Under Pressure: Libya urged stronger international support for health systems coping with non-communicable diseases and migration-driven demand. Regional Politics: Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia reiterated that only a comprehensive political solution can end Libya’s crisis, calling for UN-led progress.

Health Under Migration Strain: Libya urged stronger international support for health systems at the World Health Assembly, warning non-communicable diseases are rising while migrant numbers exceed national estimates, and calling for more “equitable and sustainable” primary healthcare funding. Oil & Gas Diplomacy: Libyan and Turkish officials held talks to expand investment and partnership in oil, gas, and energy, with renewed focus on infrastructure and the Greenstream gas pipeline to Europe. Green Energy Push: A Libyan renewable-energy academic says the country can become a regional solar and green hydrogen hub, leveraging high sunshine and large land areas to cut oil dependence. Southern Development Support: Libya’s Interior Deputy Salem Al-Zadma met the UK ambassador to discuss cooperation on services projects in the south, linking better delivery to stability. Stability Signals: UK ambassador Martin Reynolds pointed to encouraging momentum after a unified budget deal, but stressed progress still depends on cooperation and tackling corruption, armed groups, and weak institutions.

Energy Diplomacy: Libya’s Oil and Gas Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq met Turkey’s energy minister in Istanbul to push a wider oil, gas and investment partnership, with gas expansion and infrastructure—especially the Greenstream pipeline—front and center. Southern Stability Support: UK Ambassador Martin Reynolds backed development and stability efforts in Libya’s south, pointing to progress tied to cooperation and the UN political track. Currency Meets Security: Libya’s Interior Minister Emad al-Trabelsi linked dollar-rate stabilization to cracking down on speculation, signaling a tighter grip on both finance and enforcement. Regional Political Pressure: Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia renewed calls for a comprehensive political solution to end the Libyan crisis, stressing unity and institution-building. Institutional Momentum: Reynolds also highlighted the long-awaited unified budget deal as a sign Libya may be “on the brink of change,” but warned corruption, militias and weak law enforcement remain major hurdles. Industry Push: Tripoli hosted an “Industry Pioneers” forum focused on investment, diversification and improving the industrial environment.

Southern Libya Development Talks: Libya’s Deputy Prime Minister Salem Al-Zadma met UK Ambassador Martin Reynolds to push UK-backed cooperation on services and development in the south, linking delivery to stability and UNSMIL’s political track. Institutional Survival vs Collapse: Analyst Yassin says Libya’s current international momentum is a rare chance to prevent institutional collapse, but warns that militia power outside state structures keeps the rule of law out of reach—unifying the army and reforming security are framed as the gateway to investment and stability. Budget Hope, Cooperation Needed: Reynolds also pointed to “encouraging signs” after a first unified budget deal in 13 years, arguing Libya may be nearing change—if factions cooperate. Currency Meets Security: A separate thread ties dollar stability to enforcement, with Libya’s Interior Ministry discussing protecting the Central Bank and linking exchange-rate control to cracking down on speculation. Energy and Industry Signals: OMV opened a Benghazi office tied to Contract Area 91 discussions, while a Tripoli industry forum focused on investment and diversification. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria reiterated that only a comprehensive political solution can end the crisis, urging UN-led progress.

Migration Crackdown at Europe’s Door: Morocco is running large-scale deportations of sub-Saharan migrants, with reports of mass arrests, beatings and forced transfers toward the Algerian border—while the EU ramps up funding and cooperation under its migration “externalization” push. Libya’s Currency Meets Security: In Libya, officials are openly linking dollar stability to enforcement, as banks begin distributing dollars to citizens for the first time in nearly 13 years—an attempt to squeeze the black market and calm daily price pressure. Neighbor Diplomacy for a Political Exit: Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria renewed calls for a comprehensive political settlement as the only way out of Libya’s crisis, stressing UN-led steps, unified institutions and elections. Oil Sector Signals Continue: OMV has opened a Benghazi office tied to joint asset discussions, while Libya’s industry leaders push for investment and diversification. Elections Talk Returns: New debate is swirling around parliamentary elections and the sequencing of presidential votes, but details remain contested.

Libya Diplomacy Push: Egypt’s El Sisi met Algerian and Tunisian foreign ministers in Cairo, urging them to keep the trilateral mechanism on Libya moving—arguing that only a comprehensive political settlement can end the crisis and set conditions for unified institutions and elections under UN auspices. Regional Messaging: The same ministers backed a joint approach that goes beyond security to tackle economic and social root causes, while stressing Libyan ownership of the process. Currency Meets Security: In Libya, a growing theme is that financial stability is becoming a security issue—Interior officials linked protecting the Central Bank and cracking down on speculation to efforts to steady the dollar rate. Elections Talk, Still Tense: Election timelines are resurfacing with shifting positions between camps, but analysts warn optimism could fade if old disputes over eligibility and sequencing return. Economy Watch: Libya’s banks have started distributing dollars to citizens for the first time in 13 years, aiming to ease pressure on the dinar and the black market.

Gaza Humanitarian Pressure: Israel says it deported all foreign activists seized from a Gaza-bound flotilla after international outcry, while the Global Sumud Land Convoy insists it’s still pushing toward Gaza despite border obstacles, with the group currently encamped in a buffer zone between western and eastern Libya. Libya Currency Move: Libya’s banks began distributing U.S. dollars to citizens for the first time in nearly 13 years, a bid to ease the dinar crisis amid improved oil revenues—though economists warn it won’t fix deeper spending and exchange-rate distortions. Oil & Investment: OMV opened a new Benghazi office and held talks with AGOCO and the National Oil Corporation, including plans tied to Contract Area 91. Industry & Skills: Tripoli hosted an “Industry Pioneers” forum to back national industry and investment, while an EU4Skills workshop trained Libyan bodies on quality management for fish exports. Governance Watch: Eastern Libya’s Osama Hammad demanded detailed NOC financial reporting under the unified spending framework.

Currency Stabilization: Libya’s banks began distributing U.S. dollars to citizens in cash for the first time in nearly 13 years, aiming to weaken the black market after oil-linked gains and a dinar glut worsened the official-versus-market exchange gap. Oil Sector Coordination: OMV opened a Benghazi office and held expanded talks with AGOCO and the National Oil Corporation, including plans for Contract Area 91 to boost production and partner cooperation. Institutional Unification: In Benghazi, Marshal Haftar met UN Support Mission head Hanna Tetteh to discuss progress on “structured dialogue” and steps toward elections amid Libya’s ongoing institutional split. Industry & Skills: Tripoli hosted an “Industry Pioneers” forum on supporting national industry and improving investment conditions, while an EU4Skills workshop in Tripoli focused on quality management for marine fisheries and fish exports. Regional Context: EU reporting says irregular crossings into the bloc fell, but border risks persist—while Libya remains tied to wider Mediterranean migration pressures.

Currency Stabilisation: Libya’s banks have started handing out U.S. dollars to citizens for the first time in nearly 13 years, aiming to drain dinars from circulation and squeeze the black market—an emergency fix that economists warn won’t cure the deeper spending-and-scarcity problem. Oil & Governance: In Benghazi, OMV opened a new office and met with NOC and AGOCO partners to review operations and push development work on Contract Area 91. Institutional Unification: UN envoy Hanna Tetteh met Marshal Haftar in Benghazi to discuss progress on “structured dialogue” and steps toward elections. Accountability Pressure: Eastern Libya’s PM Osama Hammad demanded detailed NOC financial reporting under the unified 2026 spending framework. EU Border Context: A new Schengen update says irregular crossings fell, but central/eastern Mediterranean routes remain risky—smuggling pressure continues.

Libya’s oil governance pressure: In the latest push to make Libya’s unified budget real, Osama Hammad has demanded the National Oil Corporation provide detailed reports on operating spending and all revenue streams under the 2026 framework—an attempt to tighten accountability as the state tries to unify institutions. Political unification talks: In Benghazi, Marshal Haftar met UN envoy Hanna Tetteh to discuss progress on “structured dialogue” and steps toward elections, keeping the focus on ending institutional division. Energy diplomacy momentum: Libya’s NOC chief also told British officials and firms the country is “open for business,” as production reaches a 13-year high and London engagement targets investment and training. Regional backdrop: The week’s wider instability—from Mali’s renewed strikes to Gaza flotilla detentions—keeps pressure on migration routes and security across the Mediterranean. EU border context: A new Schengen update flags fewer irregular crossings but persistent risks in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean.